The tape is a description of the last few minutes and can turn at any time. Landing and target numbers come from Terry's volatility reading for this window with no drift assumed, the current bid and ask, and the taker fee; they cannot see news or the order book. A sale fills at the bid, not the midpoint. These use a plain volatility model; Terry’s own odds elsewhere on the page also use his other signals, so the two can differ by a few points.